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15th Mini-EURO Conference

Managing Uncertainty in Decision Support Models

(MUDSM 2004)

Coimbra - Portugal                22-24 September 2004


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Programme

Guidelines for authors

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Important dates

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Programme

WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 22.

09:30-11:00

Registration

11:00-11:30

Opening session

11:30-12:30

Plenary session

Ahti Salo, Managing Uncertainty through Preference Programming.

13:00-14:30

Lunch

14:30-16:00

 

Session 1: Analytic Hierarchy Process I

Chair: Y. Sato

Yang S.L., X.B. Liu, Y. Fang, The satisfying consistency of weighted geometric mean interval number judgement matrix in AHP. 

Kavran Z, I Cavar, AHP Model of Selecting Mobile Phones in the Republic of Croatia.

Sato Y, Empirical evaluation of scales employed in a pair-wise comparison.

Session 2: Applications I

Chair: R. A. Ribeiro

Craveirinha J, L Martins, J Clímaco, Dealing with complexity in a multiobjective dynamic routing model for multiservice networks – a heuristic approach.

Pearson M, Decision-Making in Supply Chain Networks.

Viana N, A Pereira, RA Ribeiro, A Donati, Handling missing values in solar array performance degradation forecasting.

16:00-16:30

Coffee-break

16:30-18:30

 

Session 3: Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis I

Chair: J.-B. Yang

Gouveia MC, LC Dias, CH Antunes, DEA and multiple criteria decision analysis with imprecise information for efficiency evaluation.

Ozturk M, A Tsoukiàs, Modelling continuous positive and negative reasons in decision aiding.

Sanchez LR, Integrating soft criteria in development project appraisal.

Yang J-B, D-L Xu, Making Decisions under Uncertainties using the Evidential Reasoning Approach.

Session 4: Applications II (Fuzzy sets)

Chair: M. Matos

Iglesias O, RA Ribeiro, JR Fonseca, A Bidding Model using Fuzzy Multi-Criteria for Transportation.

Jesús PMO, MT Ponce de Leão, Optimal Power Flow Analysis using Fuzzy Supply and Fuzzy Demand Functions.

Saraiva JT, N Fonseca, MA Matos, Fuzzy Tools for Power System Analysis – Fuzzy Power Flow and Fuzzy Optimal Power Flow.

 

 

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 23.

9:30-11:30

 

Session 5: Mathematical Programming

Chair: J.P. Costa

Balbo AR, EC Baptista, MN Arenales, An adaptation and application of the Dual-Affine Interior Points Method to the Flatness Problem.

Oliveira C, CH Antunes,.An overview of interval programming in MOLP models with focus on the optimizing approach.

Aköz O, D Petrovic, A new fuzzy goal programming model with uncertain goal hierarchy.

Costa JP, Computing Weight Indifference Regions in MOLFP.

Session 6: Decision aiding methodology

Chair: J. Brynielsson

Valishevsky A, Granular-Information-Based Decision Aid Methodology.

Ahuja H, Utility Estimation and Preference Aggregation under Uncertainty by Maximum Entropy Inference.

Kunsch PL, Ph. Fortemps, Evaluation of multicriteria valued preferences using fuzzy inference.

Brynielsson J, Game-Theoretic Reasoning in Command and Control.

11:30-12:00

Coffee-break

12:00-13:00

Plenary session

Simon French, Decision Support and e-Democracy: How do we represent Uncertainty for all Stakeholders?

13:00-14:30

Lunch

14:30-16:00

 

Session 7: E-democracy: concepts, tools and applications

Chair: D. Rios Insua

Rios JM, D Rios-Insua, R Efremov, E Fernandez, E-negotiations for participatory budgets.

Moreno-Jiménez JM, W Polasek, E-cognocracy: combining e-democracy with knowledge networks.

Lourenço R, JP Costa, Incorporating citizens’ views in local policy decision making processes.

Session 8: Portfolio Selection

Chair: D. Pla-Santamaria

García-Bernabeu AM, CP Sarasa, Selecting funds on the Portuguese Exchange: The prospective phase.

Pla-Santamaria D, C Stummer, M Guenther, E Ballestero, Compromise-utility approach to portfolio selection: A case from an opportunity set on three European Exchanges.

Sarasa CP, AM García-Bernabeu, Applying the compromise-utility method to select funds on the Portuguese Exchange.

16:00-16:30

Coffee-break

16:30-18:00

 

Session 9: Managing Uncertainty through Preference Programming

Chair: A. Salo, R. P. Hämäläinen

Lindstedt MRK, RP Hämäläinen, J Mustajoki, Using Intervals for Global Sensitivity and Worst Case Analyses in Multicriteria Value Trees.

Punkka A, A Salo, RICHER - A Method for Exploiting Incomplete Ordinal Preference Information in Value Trees.

Mild P, J Liesiö, A Salo, Multi-Criteria Capital Budgeting with Incomplete Preference Information.

Session 10: Project selection

Chair: D. Diakoulaki

Ferreira P, M Araújo, Including non-financial aspects in project evaluation.

Schauer MB, R&D Project Selection considering Risk and Uncertainty.

Mavrotas G, D Diakoulaki, A combined MCDA-MOMILP approach to assist in project selection under policy constraints and uncertainty in the criteria weights.

19:30-

Conference dinner at the S. Marcos Palace

 

 FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 24.

9:30-11:00

 

 

Session 11: Stochastic models I

Chair: M Mikhalevich

Põldaru R, J Roots, Estimating Uncertainty in Simple Nonlinear Stochastic Model (a Case Study). 

Koshlai L, M Mikhalevich, Two-stage  stochastic model of export-import activity.

Mikhalevich M, L Koshlai, Estimates of tolerance to decision maker’s errors for stochastic interactive procedures. 

Session 12: Applications III (Finance)

Chair: A. Sanchis

Andreeva G, Ansell J, JN Crook, Combining default and purchase propensity in credit scoring.

Jones D.F. ,  S. Mardle, Multiple Objective Decision Trees: Theory and Use in Strategy Formulation.

Sanchis A, M.J. Segovia, J.A. Gil, A. Heras, J.L. Vilar, Rough Sets and the prediction of financial instability (macroeconomic problem) and the prediction of  insolvency in insurance sector (microeconomic problem).

Session 13: Imperfect knowledge and knowledge discovery

Chair: M. Inuiguchi

Gomes da Silva C, J Figueira, J Clímaco, On the imperfect knowledge about criteria coefficients and its effects on the non-dominated frontier: a particular case of the bi-criteria {0,1}-knapsack problem

Greben JM, Prediction and confidence intervals for models fit to data when the errors are mainly non-statistical.

Inuiguchi M, J Suzuki, T. Miyajima ,Toward Rule Extraction from Multiple Decision Tables Based on Rough Set Theory.

11:00-11:30

Coffee-break

11:30-13:00

 

 

Session 14: Stochastic models II

Chair: B. Raa

Flaten O, G Lien, M Ebbesvik, M Koesling, PS Valle, Stochastic utility-efficient programming of organic dairy farms. 

Lien G, S Størdal, JB Hardaker, LJ Asheim,Optimal rotation of a forest and risk aversion: A stochastic efficiency approach. 

Raa B,  E-H Aghezzaf, The Cyclical Inventory Routing Problem with Uncertain Demands and Travel Times. 

Session 15: Analytic Hierarchy Process II

Chair: T. Entani

Ishizaka A, Advantages of clusters and pivots in AHP.

Alonso JA, MT Lamata, Relative criterion of consistency in the Analytic Hierarchy Process.

Entani T, K Sugihara, H Tanaka, Interval Priority Weights in AHP by Three Different Models.

Session 16: Group Decision Support

Chair: A. M. Marmol

Damart S, LC Dias, V Mousseau, On sorting with aggregation/disaggregation approaches in contexts with multiple decision-makers.

Melo P, JP Costa, sing Differences for Group Decision - description of a prototype system. 

Contreras I, AM Marmol, A consensus method for multiple criteria group decision problems with imprecise information.

13:00-14:30

Lunch

14:30-16:00

 

Session 17: Multiple-Criteria Decision Analysis II

Chair: C.A. Bana e Costa

Amor SB, K Jabeur, JM Martel, Multiple criteria aggregation procedure for mixed evaluations. 

Matos MA, Decision under risk as a multicriteria problem. 

Bana e Costa CA, JM De Corte, JC Vansnick, How to deal with uncertainty in MACBETH.

Session 18: Scheduling problems

Chair: S.. Petrovic

Józefczyk J, Robust algorithm for task scheduling on moving executors with uncertain processing times. 

Petrovic D, A Duenas. S Petrovic, A multi-objective job shop scheduling problem with linguistically quantified decision functions. 

Petrovic S, C Fayad, A Fuzzy Shifting Bottleneck Hybridised with Genetic Algorithm for Real-world Job Shop Scheduling . 

16:00-16:30

Coffee-break

16:30-18:00

 

Session 19: Decision Support Systems

Chair: S. Leleur

Hyde KM, HR Maier, Distance Based Uncertainty Analysis for Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis in Excel using Visual Basic for Applications (VBA).

Jiménez A, LC Rodríguez, A Mateos, Sixto Ríos-Insua, A DSS for Contracting of Cleaning Services in a European Public Underground Transportation Company.

Leleur S, KB Salling, AV Jensen, Modelling Decision Support and Uncertainty for Large Transport Infrastructure Projects: The CLG-DSS Model of the Øresund Fixed Link.

Session 20: Applications IV (Environment)

Chair: J. Clímaco

Kunsch PL, A Ruttiens, A Chevalier, A methodology using option pricing to determine a suitable discount rate in environmental management.

Diakoulaki D, S Grafakos, Treatment of uncertainty in weights elicitation through the disclosure of the hidden monetary values assigned to sustainability criteria.

Silva RT, MJ Alves, J Clímaco, A discussion on a forest management case study based on an interactive analysis of a multiobjective integer model.

 

 SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 25.

Social program – excursion.

Visit to the old University buildings

Visit to the College of Agriculture and lunch

Visit to the Roman ruins of Conímbriga